The New Capital Journal
Financial news, views, advice, and guidance.
Brought to you by New Capital and our business partners.
Vanguard’s Economic and Market Outlook For 2024
A return to sound money. It’s a theme we at Vanguard have been communicating for more than a year, and in 2024 we believe that the greater investing world will come around to its implications.
Midyear Economic Outlook: Sticky Inflation Most Everywhere
Get updates on our 2023 outlook for growth, inflation, and central bank policies, plus 10-year asset class return forecasts.
Market Perspectives
Our global survey of economic conditions features a look at divergent expectations for the key U.S. interest rate.
Why The Fed Will Not Cut Interest Rates This Year
Vanguard's model anticipates that the Fed won't be in a position to cut rates until the middle of 2024.
True Diversification Calls for A Global Outlook
Picking the right countries, sectors, and securities (and getting the timing right) is virtually impossible to do consistently. That’s where consistent global diversification comes in.
Market Perspectives
Vanguard Market perspectives offers global economic and security returns forecasts.
Vanguard’s Head of Bonds Shares Perspective on Recent Bank Closures
With all the recent headlines about bank failures, we asked Sara Devereux, global head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group, for her perspective on what happened with the banks, how our bond portfolios fared in the market tumult that followed, and how well positioned those portfolios are for future volatility.
Municipal Bond Downgrades Coming, But Defaults Unlikely
Vanguard currently believes a recession will likely arrive this year, and municipal bond investors should expect that headlines about the potential for downgrades and defaults will soon follow.
2023 Economy and Markets: 4 Things to Know
Key Takeaways from the 2023 Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook.
Market Perspectives: December 2022
Vanguard December Market perspectives offers global economic and security returns forecasts.
Managing Liquidity Risk in the World’s Deepest Bond Market
Liquidity has been evaporating from the Treasury market. Vanguard's active fixed income funds are managing for stability.
Market Perspectives: November 2022
Vanguard November Market perspectives offers global economic and security returns forecasts.
Can Bond Portfolios Benefit from Inflation and Rising Interest Rates?
The 2022 bond market so far has been the worst in history. Do active portfolio managers see hope for fixed income investors anytime soon?
High inflation Today, A "Job-Full Recession" Tomorrow
We now have two of the three ingredients for stagflation—high inflation and low or no economic growth—but we are missing the third, high unemployment.
Market Perspectives: September 2022
Vanguard September market perspectives offers global economic and security returns forecasts.
4 Reasons to Embrace Global Investing
Recent extreme market volatility can afford you the chance to redeploy your capital in order to help achieve your long-term financial goals. Here are four reasons to embrace global investing.
Rising Interest Rates and What You Can Do
Soaring inflation. Rising rates. Market volatility. What are strategies for responding not only to the rocky, recent past quarter, but also to the prospect of a rising-rates environment over the next cycle?
The Fed's Plan To Shrink Its Balance Sheet, Quickly
In addition to raising its key interest rate target by half a percentage point on May 4, the Fed has said it will start to shrink its balance sheet, another step in post-pandemic policy normalization.
Central Banks Have A Short Runway For A Soft Landing
Three factors will determine whether central banks can navigate a soft landing of continued growth with prices rising at acceptable levels, or whether they miss an uncomfortably short runway.
A Welcome End to a Low-Rate Era
Vanguard has emphasized for months that markets have underestimated just how high the Federal Reserve might need to raise its key interest rate target to quell inflation.