The New Capital Journal
Financial news, views, advice, and guidance.
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With the economy so strong, why don’t Americans feel better?
Despite lackluster sentiment, Americans have not stopped spending. Consumption is expected to have grown at a solid 3% ann. pace in the third quarter, supporting continued earnings growth for U.S. companies.
Is the strong-dollar era over?
All told, while the U.S. dollar might soften modestly from here, it will soften unevenly against major global currencies.
Is U.S. Concentration In Global Equity Indices Too Extreme?
In the last 10 years, markets like Taiwan and India have kept up with the U.S., returning 12.3% and 10.1% respectively, compared to 12.0% for U.S. equities on an annualized basis.
Is Inflation Reaccelerating?
It would likely take an extraordinary change in the data to bring a June cut back on the table, but the Fed’s path thereafter is still to be determined, and remains reliant on how inflation progresses from here.
When Will The Federal Reserve Start Cutting Interest Rates?
All things considered; we stick to our base case for three rate reductions this year beginning in June.
Are There Opportunities Outside the “Magnificent 7” and Outside the U.S.?
For Europe and Japan, the return of inflation and positive interest rates is a game changer: earnings have improved as a result of higher end-consumer prices.
What’s Happened So Far In 2024?
With geopolitical tensions on the boil, major moves and milestones in markets and a slew of upbeat economic data, January has been a wild ride.
Investing In An Election Year
Maintaining a disciplined approach to investing is critical to achieving one’s long-term investment goals. We have compiled five key principles for investing in an election year.
Have Other Equity Market Returns Been As Concentrated As Those In The U.S.?
Performance in developed markets excluding the U.S. has been much less concentrated year-to-date: the top 10 companies in the index are up 13.7%, while the remaining stocks are up 6.7%.
After Two Consecutive Pauses, What Is Next for the Federal Reserve?
While a reacceleration in growth and/or inflation could prompt another rate hike either in December or early next year, short-term bumps in a downward trending economy likely keep the Fed on hold well into 2024.
What Is Really Going On With Real Assets?
2023 has seen more office conversion activity – while sometimes this can be easier said than done, it does suggest that there is an evolving opportunity in the office space for investors who can deploy additional capital.
2Q23 Earnings: Resilient
The first half of the year turned out to be better than expected, with Europe dodging recession, China emerging from a multi-year lockdown and a tight U.S. labor market providing a boost to activity.
What Is the Outlook for Oil Prices?
The likely cause for declining oil prices is increased U.S. production, which is expected to reach an all-time high in 2023.
Have U.S. Equities Rallied Too Much?
Beneath the surface are two market dynamics: the megacap tech stocks, which account for the lion’s share of positive market performance year-to-date, and everything else.
Was The June FOMC Meeting A Fed Pause Or Hawkish Skip?
The announcement made it clear that the committee still needs more compelling evidence that inflation is under control and could very well tighten at least once more this summer.
Is The Fed Getting Inflation Wrong?
Falling energy and electricity prices helped disinflation in headline CPI, which rose just 0.1% on the month, while stickiness in shelter, used cars and transportation services kept core inflation steady at 0.4%.
Will the Debt Ceiling Aftermath Push Up Interest Rates?
Although rates have risen across the curve in recent weeks due to debt ceiling uncertainty, more hawkish Fed expectations, and resilient economic data, the overall macro landscape is one of slowing growth and receding inflation.
Beware Medicare: Why Is Medicare Funding A Big Problem?
For Americans planning for retirement, the obvious implication is to save and invest more. Beyond this, it has become increasingly necessary to have some assets outside of traditional 401(k)s and IRAs.
What Happens If the U.S. Breaches the Debt Ceiling?
The U.S. reached its debt limit of USD 31.4 trillion on January 19th and has since been relying on funds in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and so-called “extraordinary measures” to fund its obligations.
Will the U.S. Dollar Go “Digital”?
On March 15, the Federal Reserve announced a new payment service called FedNow. The announcement came roughly a year after President Biden signed an executive order tasking the Federal Reserve with looking into a CBDC for the U.S. financial system.