While it may be premature for the Fed to incorporate tariff implications into monetary policy decisions, current data on resilient growth, healthy labor markets and other factors suggest that the Fed's path may be more gradual and may settle at a higher level than their latest projections indicate.

Despite lackluster sentiment, Americans have not stopped spending. Consumption is expected to have grown at a solid 3% ann. pace in the third quarter, supporting continued earnings growth for U.S. companies.

All told, while the U.S. dollar might soften modestly from here, it will soften unevenly against major global currencies.

In the last 10 years, markets like Taiwan and India have kept up with the U.S., returning 12.3% and 10.1% respectively, compared to 12.0% for U.S. equities on an annualized basis.

It would likely take an extraordinary change in the data to bring a June cut back on the table, but the Fed’s path thereafter is still to be determined, and remains reliant on how inflation progresses from here.

All things considered; we stick to our base case for three rate reductions this year beginning in June.

For Europe and Japan, the return of inflation and positive interest rates is a game changer: earnings have improved as a result of higher end-consumer prices.

With geopolitical tensions on the boil, major moves and milestones in markets and a slew of upbeat economic data, January has been a wild ride.

Maintaining a disciplined approach to investing is critical to achieving one’s long-term investment goals. We have compiled five key principles for investing in an election year.

Performance in developed markets excluding the U.S. has been much less concentrated year-to-date: the top 10 companies in the index are up 13.7%, while the remaining stocks are up 6.7%.

While a reacceleration in growth and/or inflation could prompt another rate hike either in December or early next year, short-term bumps in a downward trending economy likely keep the Fed on hold well into 2024.

2023 has seen more office conversion activity – while sometimes this can be easier said than done, it does suggest that there is an evolving opportunity in the office space for investors who can deploy additional capital.

The first half of the year turned out to be better than expected, with Europe dodging recession, China emerging from a multi-year lockdown and a tight U.S. labor market providing a boost to activity.

The likely cause for declining oil prices is increased U.S. production, which is expected to reach an all-time high in 2023.

Beneath the surface are two market dynamics: the megacap tech stocks, which account for the lion’s share of positive market performance year-to-date, and everything else.

The announcement made it clear that the committee still needs more compelling evidence that inflation is under control and could very well tighten at least once more this summer.

Falling energy and electricity prices helped disinflation in headline CPI, which rose just 0.1% on the month, while stickiness in shelter, used cars and transportation services kept core inflation steady at 0.4%.

Although rates have risen across the curve in recent weeks due to debt ceiling uncertainty, more hawkish Fed expectations, and resilient economic data, the overall macro landscape is one of slowing growth and receding inflation.

For Americans planning for retirement, the obvious implication is to save and invest more. Beyond this, it has become increasingly necessary to have some assets outside of traditional 401(k)s and IRAs.

The U.S. reached its debt limit of USD 31.4 trillion on January 19th and has since been relying on funds in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and so-called “extraordinary measures” to fund its obligations.